The till shows a good week, but rent, payroll, VAT and two suppliers fall due before the next large collection. Cash flow does not ask whether the month will be profitable; it asks what will actually be available on each critical day.
The 30-minute cash meeting
- Verify opening bank and physical cash.
- List collections by date and probability.
- List committed payments by date.
- Separate tax, payroll, suppliers, debt and investment.
- Calculate the low point over 13 weeks.
- Give every shortfall an action and owner.
- Replace forecast with actual next week.
1. Start with available money, not sales
Take available bank balance, add physically counted cash and remove amounts not usable: uncleared cheques, reserved transfers, third-party deposits or blocked facilities. Reconcile that opening. A precise forecast built on the wrong balance is still wrong.
| Item | Include when | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Bank | Verified available balance | Value date and pending items |
| Till | Physical count | Float and differences |
| Receivable | Probable receipt date | Not invoice date by default |
| Credit line | Available and authorised | Cost and conditions |
Use certain, probable and opportunity columns. A customer’s promise is not as certain as a card settlement already credited.
2. Give every movement a date
The equation is simple: closing cash equals opening plus receipts minus payments. The work is timing. Cash sales follow their bank cycle; customer invoices use realistic collection dates; suppliers use commitments; payroll, rent, tax, VAT and debt follow schedules. Add stock purchases and capital spending even where they do not follow the same timing as profit expense.
| Week | Opening | In | Out | Closing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | 45,000 | 28,000 | 51,000 | 22,000 |
| W2 | 22,000 | 18,000 | 34,000 | 6,000 |
| W3 | 6,000 | 42,000 | 29,000 | 19,000 |
Week 2 is the danger in this illustration. A positive monthly total hides it. Management can accelerate a receivable, delay a non-urgent purchase, negotiate a supplier or prepare finance before the break.
3. Turn variance into learning
At the next meeting, do not copy the forecast. Replace the completed week with actual and explain variance: sales volume, customer delay, early supplier, unexpected stock, forgotten tax or entry error. Then change the rule that produced it.
- Import actual balances.
- Match material movements.
- Compare forecast and actual by category.
- Name the cause, not just amount.
- Roll only still-valid flows.
- Revise collection probabilities.
- Decide and date actions.
- Publish a locked version.
Keep old versions. They show whether forecasting improves and prevent the team rewriting history to look correct.
Turnover is not bank balance
A credit sale raises activity before collection; stock purchases and loan repayments consume cash on a timetable unlike accounting profit.
4. Connect sales, stock, bank and decisions
BelloPOS can supply sales by payment method, refunds and stock movements. Bank, payroll, tax, loans and out-of-system spending come from elsewhere. Consolidate them in one view with an owner for every material line.
- Sales: pace and payment rail
- Stock: orders and need
- Receivables: realistic date and promise
- Finance: bank, tax and debt
- Management: trade-offs and minimum reserve
Set a minimum-cash alert suited to your business, not a universal percentage. A seasonal restaurant and B2B service firm have different cycles and risk.
Mistakes to avoid
- Starting from an unreconciled balance.
- Dating receivables at invoice date.
- Forgetting VAT, payroll or debt.
- Dividing an annual number by 52.
- Overwriting the old forecast.
- Leaving actions ownerless.
Frequently asked questions
Why use 13 weeks?
It is a practical horizon for near-term pressure while preserving weekly detail. Adapt it to the business cycle.
Should VAT be included?
Yes, as a cash movement on its forecast date, based on a validated tax calculation.
How do I forecast an uncertain customer?
Use a realistic date, probability/scenario and named collection owner rather than treating it as certain.
How much minimum cash is enough?
It depends on unavoidable outflows, replenishment time and volatility. Calculate it from your risks.
Is BelloPOS enough for cash forecasting?
No. It contributes sales, payments and stock; bank, tax, payroll, debt and decisions must be integrated.
What to take away
Cash is managed from a reconciled opening balance, dated movements and weekly explained variances—not from a feeling that sales are strong.
Sources
The figures and rules quoted above come from these pages, read on the date given in the article.
Launch the first 13-week view
Do not chase perfection: make opening cash, the ten largest flows and the low point reliable first.
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