A forecast is not a row of growth rates. Start with observable units—tickets, basket, open days, customers, frequency, quantity and margin—and let those drivers produce profit and cash. Year one is managed month by month; years two and three show capacity, hiring and repayment.
Calculation order
- Set the calendar and the capacity.
- Build volume × price.
- Calculate variable cost and margin.
- Add fixed costs and hiring.
- Plan investment and funding.
- Model customer terms, stock and supplier terms.
- Produce profit and cash.
- Test a low, central and high case.
1. Choose the drivers
A café can work from tickets × basket × open days; a wholesaler from customers × orders × basket; a service firm from consultants × billable days × rate.
| Driver | Source | Control |
|---|---|---|
| Volume | field/capacity | physical ceiling |
| Price | test/quote | market fit |
| Margin | landed cost | loss included |
| Timing | contract/habit | cash effect |
2. Build the statements
Build in this order so that revenue never appears out of thin air.
- Monthly sales by product or channel.
- Purchases and variable costs.
- Gross margin.
- Payroll, rent and fixed costs.
- Investment and depreciation, validated with the accountant.
- Receivables, stock and supplier payables.
- The funding plan.
- Opening and closing cash.
Do not confuse profit and cash: a credit sale raises the result before the money arrives, while stock you have paid for consumes cash before the sale happens.
3. Make the scenarios speak
Change the drivers, not the final answer.
| Test | Change | Question |
|---|---|---|
| Sales | volume -20% | how many months can we last? |
| Margin | cost +5% | which price or which range? |
| Collection | 30 days later | how much working capital? |
| Opening | two months late | which costs continue anyway? |
Write the action next to each threshold: freeze hiring, cut stock, renegotiate terms or defer an investment.
Precision is not truth
A table with two decimals is still wrong when the volume rests on no evidence. Show the drivers, the sources and the date of every assumption.
4. Validate the Moroccan context
Have a Moroccan accountant confirm the taxes, contributions, depreciation rules and calendars that apply to your legal form and activity. Use dated local quotes for rent, wages, transport, banking and equipment.
- Year 1: monthly, evidence and survival
- Year 2: capacity, hiring and repeatability
- Year 3: maturity, debt and investment
- Reforecast: actual to date plus new assumptions
Handle seasonality and opening days by sector, rather than applying Ramadan or tourism effects to every project alike.
5. Reforecast from the sales
Every month, replace the elapsed months with the actual figures and keep the coming months as assumptions.
- Import the sales and the discounts.
- Recalculate margin with current costs.
- Compare stock levels and rotation.
- Explain the three largest variances.
BelloPOS can supply the commercial actuals, and since version 3.0 it keeps the journals, the trial balance and the financial statements on the Pro plan. The accountant still owns the entries, and the forecast is what connects the two.
Mistakes to avoid
- Growth expressed as a percentage with no capacity behind it.
- Leaving working capital out of the model.
- Treating stock as an immediate expense.
- Smoothing away the season instead of modelling it.
- Testing a single scenario.
- Filing the model away once the funding is secured.
Frequently asked questions
Should every product be forecast separately?
Group them into families with similar margin and behaviour.
Monthly or annual?
Monthly at least for year one; an annual view hides the lean months.
How do I forecast with no history?
Use fieldwork, live tests, capacity limits and comparable businesses, within a prudent range.
Who validates the model?
The founder owns the drivers; the accountant validates the treatment.
How does BelloPOS fit in?
It supplies the real sales, discounts and stock figures used to reforecast.
What to take away
A sound forecast explains why the figure exists and what happens when it misses. Model the drivers, the working capital and the actions, then replace assumptions with actuals every month.
Sources
The figures and rules quoted above come from these pages, read on the date given in the article.
- Casablanca-Settat RIC, Entrepreneur journey, read 30 August 2026
- Creator guide hosted by Maroc PME, business-plan section, read 30 August 2026
Move from plan to actual
Use controlled sales and inventory to update the scenario, never to hide a variance.
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